Demography of longevity: past, present, and future trends
Section snippets
Prehistoric estimates
We do not know much about how long humans lived before 1750. Around that time, the first national population data began being collected in Sweden and Finland. For earlier eras, we have some life tables constructed for municipal populations, members of the nobility, and other groups that were probably not representative of the national population at large (e.g. Lee et al., 1993, Hollingsworth, 1977). After 1750 and even today, we have extensive and highly reliable mortality information for only
Outlooks for the future
It is impossible to make a firm scientific statement about what will happen in the future. As scientists, demographers can only present the details of well-specified scenarios, which serve as forecasts or projections of the future. They may also help by clearly defining the terms of the debate — for example, by discussing what is meant by the notion of “limits to life span.” Limits possibly affecting the increase of human longevity are the first topic of this section, followed by a discussion
Conclusion
The rise of longevity is one of the greatest achievements of human history. It is the result of a complex set of changes beginning several centuries ago. Prior to the 1930s, most of this decline was due to factors other than medical therapy (McKeown, 1979) and is generally attributed to improvements in living conditions and public health. With the advent of anti-bacterial drugs in the 1930s and 1940s, medical treatment began to play an important role in these changes, and this role has expanded
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by a grant from the National Institute on Aging, R01-AG11552.
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