Study 1 means: scapegoating and participant estimates of C19 risks (hospitalisation, dying and non-recovery) by character and vaccination condition (vaccinated, unvaccinated, unvaccinated-recovered)
| Character (age, risk profile) | Measures | Risk estimates | Vaccinated condition | Unvaccinated condition | Unvaccinated and recovered |
| %* | Mean | Mean | Mean | ||
| Katy (21, low) | Scapegoating | 1.52 | 3.24 | 3.15 | |
| Hospitalisation | <1 | 13.71 | 28.40 | 23.69 | |
| Dying | <1 | 6.37 | 16.19 | 13.08 | |
| Non-recovery† | NA | 7.12 | 16.95 | 13.79 | |
| Mark (38, low) | Scapegoating | 1.21 | 3.04 | 2.68 | |
| Hospitalisation | <1 | 12.02 | 31.72 | 27.78 | |
| Dying | <1 | 6.73 | 18.39 | 15.81 | |
| Non-recovery | NA | 7.48 | 18.64 | 15.72 | |
| Mary (75, high) | Scapegoating | 1.26 | 3.40 | 2.82 | |
| Hospitalisation | <20 | 32.06 | 57.68 | 42.15 | |
| Dying | <10 | 20.49 | 38.86 | 27.41 | |
| Non-recovery | NA | 19.79 | 36.10 | 27.58 | |
| Richard (53, high) | Scapegoating | 1.67 | 3.43 | 3.15 | |
| Hospitalisation | ~5 | 38.75 | 64.39 | 45.99 | |
| Dying | <10 | 24.52 | 42.31 | 30.40 | |
| Non-recovery | NA | 23.26 | 41.82 | 29.75 |
*Age-stratified severe and fatal C19 outcome estimates by the character in the prevaccination era (2020). Estimate ranges are conservative values based on several sources available at the time of data collection.19–26 59 60 All of these risks would be substantially lower in January 2022 when the experiment was conducted due both to vaccination and natural immunity. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated that more than 40% of adults aged 18–49 had had a prior C19 infection at this time, while slightly less than 70% had been vaccinated.75
†We do not estimate the chances that the character will never recover.
C19, COVID-19; NA, not available.