The risk-escalation model: a principled design strategy for early-phase trials

Kennedy Inst Ethics J. 2014 Jun;24(2):121-39. doi: 10.1353/ken.2014.0017.

Abstract

Should first-in-human trials be designed to maximize the prospect of therapeutic benefit for volunteers, prioritize avoidance of unintended harms, or aim for some happy medium between the two? Perennial controversies surrounding initiation and design of early-phase trials hinge on how this question is resolved. In this paper, we build on the premise that the task of early-phase testing is to optimize various components of a potential therapy so that later, confirmatory trials have the maximal probability of informing drug development and clinical care. We then explore three strategies that investigators might use to manage trial risks while optimizing a therapy, using cell therapy for Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) as an example. We argue that an iterative application of maximin strategies over successive cohorts and trials, which we call the "risk-escalation model," establishes a moral principle that should guide decision-making in early-phase trials.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis / therapy
  • Cell- and Tissue-Based Therapy / adverse effects
  • Cell- and Tissue-Based Therapy / ethics
  • Clinical Trials as Topic / ethics*
  • Clinical Trials, Phase II as Topic / ethics
  • Clinical Trials, Phase III as Topic / ethics
  • Decision Making / ethics
  • Humans
  • Patient Selection / ethics*
  • Research Design* / standards
  • Research Design* / trends
  • Risk Assessment / ethics*
  • Risk Assessment / standards
  • Therapeutic Human Experimentation / ethics*
  • Treatment Outcome
  • Uncertainty